Are we there yet?

A lot of people are writing and talking about the housing bottom these days. "Are we there yet?" is a question we hear a lot.

If we define the bottom in the housing market as the point at which both sales and prices begin to increase, then we haven't reached bottom. Sales are decreasing on a year-over-year basis, although the encouraging news is that the decrease appears to be slowing.

Prices also continue to decrease, and are likely to be under pressure for as long as we continue to see foreclosures on the rise. (July was a record month for Dane County foreclosures. We'll be sharing the July numbers in the next few days.)

Of course it's really not fair to paint a broad brush across the whole market. Some price ranges and locations are likely to rebound before others, while the single family home market is likely to bounce before the condo market.

Then there are the wild cards such as the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit that can have a huge impact on market dynamics. Don't be surprised if we see another housing stimulus plan appear in the coming months - one which will change all that we know about the market right now.

And last, don't forget about mortgage rates. A big shift in rates can have a big impact on the market.

Given all of the fuzziness and murkiness around the subject of the housing bottom, this will be our first and only post on this topic. We're not economists, but we'll continue to share the data and trends to help you shape your own opinions.

Have a good weekend,

Dan Miller, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com