More foreclosures around the corner?

We recently reported Dane County foreclosures decreased in January - the first time foreclosures have fallen in 34 months. Is this the beginning of a new trend? Barry Ritholz from http://www.ritholz.com/ does not think so. Ritholz and others predict a huge wave of new foreclosures is just around the corner. You can read more here.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County home and condo sales higher in January

Dane County home and condo sales recorded via the South Central Wisconsin MLS totaled 182 in January, up 29% from last January's 141 sales. The median home and condo price was lower by 6.4%.

We are seeing very robust buyer activity right now. The extended and enhanced tax credit is certainly spurring sales - even during this cold Wisconsin winter. If you have been planning to sell but have been waiting for warmer weather, you may want to reconsider your plan. The weather may be cold but the market is heating up.

You can view our full report on the January home and condo market here. All of our statistics for the 2009 sales year have been updated, too. You will find them on the real estate trends page at www.DaneCountyMarket.com.

Have a great week,

Dan Miller, Realtor, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Signs of a changing market?

Recently two different people with interesting profiles have asked us to assist them with their real estate purchase. These buyers are different from each other in that one is purchasing a home and the other a condo.
However they are very similar in a few different ways.

Both buyers are analytical people. They have been planning to buy for the last two years but up until this point in time they didn't feel the market had fallen enough to their liking. In the meantime they have been tracking the market and researching properties on our web site. And now we are actively assisting them with their purchase.

Neither person would have thought of buying a year or two years ago, but they've decided now is the right time to jump in.

Are stories like these signs of a new market? Time well tell, but I view it as good news for the market when analytical consumers with an investor's mentality decide now is the time to buy.

Have a good Friday,

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County foreclosures down 18% in January

For the first time in 34 months, Dane County foreclosures have decreased. A total of 127 foreclosures were filed in January, compared to 154 a year ago.

For our full foreclosure report, you can check out the economic trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

The buying season is here

We've noticed a large uptick in buyer activity over the last two weeks. Our real estate search tools are receiving a ton of page hits. Our listings are receiving a lot of showings. Our buyers are out in large numbers, viewing properties and making offers. The market feels much warmer than it did at the same time last year.

If you're planning to buy, don't be surprised if other buyers are getting ready to write an offer on the same home as you. Make sure you have your mortgage pre-approval in order, and be prepared to act quickly.

If you're planning to sell, and you haven't listed your home yet, now is a great time to get your home on the market. From our perspective, the buying season has already begun.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Changes in the commercial market?

Nine commercial properties totaling almost $2.7 million were sold in Dane County in December. That's almost 3 times the sold dollar amount from the 3 previous months combined. (All numbers come from the South Central Wisconsin MLS).

However, commercial sales in 2009 ended the year at just over $13 million. That's the lowest sales total of the decade.



Let's hope we see more encouraging months like the month of December in the near future. There is reason to believe so, as Dane County foreclosures decreased for the first time in 34 months in January (more on these numbers coming soon).

For more on the latest commercial real estate trends, you can check out our commercial real estate update on the economic trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Did the market improve in 2009?

Sales of Dane County single family homes (excluding condos) increased in 2009, but did the market for single family homes really improve? To answer this question we turn to one of our favorite statistics - total days on market experience.

For those who want the details, the total days on market experience approximates the time required to sell a home by taking into account the average days on market for listings that sell, the average days on market for listings that expire, and the overall listing success rate for homes in Dane County. In other words the total days on market experience is a measure of the effort required to sell the average Dane County home.

When we look back at the last two years, we see the total days on market experience for the average Dane County home decreased from 258 days in 2008 to 225 days in 2009.

The time required to sell the average Dane County home improved; however, the real story becomes clear when we look at this statistic by price range. Here's how the total days on market experience changed by price range from 2008 to 2009.

Last year was a tale of two markets. Low interest rates and the home buyer tax credit boosted the market in many of the lower price categories, but the market for homes priced at $500,000 and above took a clear hit.

This year several of our higher priced listings have been receiving good showing activity and good offers - thanks in large part to our clients who have embraced proper pricing, home staging, and aggressive marketing that leverages our clients' efforts to make their homes show their best.

In this market a listing's success depends a lot on how well the seller and the agent are able to work together on an aggressive, well-conceived plan. And in the highest price categories, a strong collaboration between client and agent is a requirement, not an option.

Have a good week,

Dan Miller, Keller Williams Realty and http://www.danecountymarket.com/

How changes in the market have affected real estate agents

How has the real estate downturn affected real estate agents? The graph below paints a clear picture. It shows Dane County home and condo sales (in millions of dollars) dating back to the year 2000.




You'll see 2005 was the grand daddy of all years, with Dane County home and condo sales totaling $1.94 billion. That's the year everyone and their uncle was in real estate.

Home and condo sales decreased steadily thereafter to $1.247 billion in 2009, a 36% decrease from the peak year of 2005. That 36% decrease is a good proxy for how much annual commission dollars have decreased since 2005. In reality, commission dollars have probably decreased by more than 36% due to the compensation structures for some of today's listings.

All of this negative news means it's a great time to be in real estate. There are plenty of opportunities right now for real estate professionals who have a long-term focus and a commitment to service.

It's also a very rewarding time to be in real estate. Many of today's clients want someone they can trust who will help them successfully navigate today's complex market. And then there are those clients who are in a really tough spot and need help getting out of a challenging situation.

This year promises to be another year full of challenge and opportunity. We're very much looking forward to embracing the next 12 months and growing our business once again.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

How the Dane County home and condo markets vary by price range

The market for sellers is most challenging for the homes and condos that are on the high end of the price ladder. And the data for Dane County listing success rates bears that out.

For example, in 2009 the overall listing success rate for Dane County homes was 56%. Homes under $100,000 had a success rate of 71%. Homes over $800,000 had a success rate of 14%.

In the condo market, the overall success rate was 36%. Condos under $100,000 had a success rate of 53%. Condos over $800,000 had a success rate of 9%.

Another way to view the market by price range is to look at how months of inventory vary across the price spectrum. If you take a peek at this data, the pattern is very clear.

Given the data and the realities of the market, pricing and marketing become ultra-critical as you work your way up the price ladder. The cost of not being able to sell a high-end property in a downward trending market is very real.

Remember all of those golf course homes that were worth a million dollars 3 years ago?

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

December's distressed property index decreases to 23%

Approximately 23% of the home and condo sales in Dane County are related to foreclosure, according to the Distressed Property Index we developed a few months ago. The December index decreased from November's index value of 24%.

For more details, please visit our monthly update at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Have a good day,

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County December market update

What happens after a tax credit deadline passes?

Sales decrease.

Our preliminary review of data from the South Central Wisconsin MLS shows a total of 253 Dane County homes and condos sold in December, compared to 289 sales from a year ago - a decrease of 12%. A total of 5,455 homes and condos sold during the 2009 sales year, compared to 5,336 in 2008 - an increase of 2%.



You may remember home and condo sales more than doubled in November, as first-time home buyers rushed to cash in on the previous tax credit prior to the November 30th deadline. We do expect home and condo sales to rise similarly once again as we near the deadline for the extended and enhanced tax credit.

You can view our full report on the December Dane County home and condo market here.

Have a great weekend,

Dan Miller, Realtor, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Interest rates headed higher?

Eric Rosengren, chief of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, predicts rates will rise between .5% and.75% over the coming months. You can read more in this article from The Hartford Courant.

Rock-bottom interest rates and tax credit incentives won't last forever. If you need to sell, you have a window of opportunity right now. We recommend you consider listing your home in January rather than waiting until spring.

Food for thought.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County foreclosures up 29% in 2009

Dane County foreclosures increased for the 33rd straight month in December. A total of 117 foreclosures were logged in December, an increase of 14% from the 103 foreclosures recorded in December of 2008.

Foreclosures ended the year up 29%. From the graph below you see foreclosures increased for the fifth straight year in 2009.



For our full foreclosure report, you can check out the economic trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County housing starts up big in December

Dane County housing starts fell off a cliff at the end of 2008, as the building industry felt the full impact of the economic downturn. The twenty housing starts recorded in December of 2008 was the lowest monthly total of the decade.

This past December housing starts showed a nice rebound off that low. A total of 65 housing starts were recorded in December of 2009, marking the second straight monthly increase for Dane County.

Thanks to Dominic Collar from MTD Marketing Services of Wisconsin for sharing his data. For more information, you can contact Dominic directly at 920/993-8435. You can also check out our full housing start report on the real estate trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

More Madison homes sold for below the assessed value in 2009

Our analysis of data from the South Central Wisconsin MLS shows 58% of the Madison homes that sold in 2009 ended up selling for under the 2009 assessed value. This marks the first year during the new millennium that more than 50% of all Madison homes sold for an amount less than the assessment. (Note: this analysis excludes condos, as well as new construction houses that did not reach their full assessment prior to sale).

Here's how the data has trended over the last 10 years.




The trend toward more homes selling for under the assessment is no big surprise. But these stats from 2009 may surprise you:

• Only 40% of all Madison homes sold in 2009 ended up selling for a price that was within $10,000 (plus or minus) of the assessed value.
• Thirty-seven percent of all Madison homes sold for a price that was more than $10,000 under the assessment.
• Twenty-three percent of all Madison homes sold for a price that was more than $10,000 above the assessment.

In other words the majority of all home sales occurred at a price point that was either well above or well below the assessed value.

The data drives a home a point that we have been making for the last several years: It is the market that determines a home's true value, not the city assessor.

For more information, please see our articles Market Value vs Assessed Value and Pricing Your Home. You'll find both on the selling real estate page at DaneCountyMarket.com.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County multifamily real estate sales were strong in November

Seventeen Dane County multifamily listings totaling 49 units and over $4M in sales were recorded in November via the South Central Wisconsin MLS. That's a good month for the multifamily market.

A closer look at the numbers shows the November 30th deadline for the previous version of the home buyer tax credit had a big impact on the market. Thirteen of the 17 listings that sold during the month were for duplexes, as buyers choosing to owner occupy closed in time for the deadline.

We've stated repeatedly over the past several months that it's a great time for investors to learn more about the multifamily market. With over 3 years of inventory and a strong trend toward lower prices, the market has clearly shifted in favor of the buyer investor.

For more details on the Dane County multifamily market, you can check out our monthly report on MadisonIncomeProperties.com.

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Listing success rates say a lot about the Dane County commercial real estate market

Listing success rates for the Dane County Commercial market were at or above 24% during the first 6 years of the decade. Success rates then decreased over the next 3 years and ended at 14% in the year 2008.

That trend continued in 2009. As of November 30th, the listing success rate over the prior 12 months was 6.8%.

Comparing the success rate to the success rates from other forms of Dane County real estate puts the commercial market in perspective.

* commercial success rate = 6.8%
* multifamily success rate = 19.8%
* condo success rate = 38.3%
* single family home success rate = 57%

For more on the latest commercial real estate trends, you can check out our commercial real estate update on the economic trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County home and condo sales up 126% in November

Our preliminary statistics from the South Central Wisconsin MLS are in for the month of November, and the headline is not a typo.

Dane County home and condo sales jumped from 212 in November of 2008 to 479 last month, an increase of 126%. November's median price for Dane County homes and condos was $192,000, down from last November's $215,950, a decrease of 10.7%.

The huge increase in sales was due to two factors. First, sales last November plunged after the stock market crashed in September of 2008. Second, many home buyers this November rushed to cash in on the first-time home buyer tax credit that was set to expire on November 30th.

For more details, your can check out our full report at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Housing starts sluggish in November

Dane County housing starts were sluggish again in November. A total of 37 housing starts were recorded in November, compared to 35 in November of 2008. The graph below provides a clear picture of how the new construction market has been trending since the beginning of 2005.




Year-to-date, housing starts are down 16.4% compared to the same time period last year.

Thanks to Dominic Collar from MTD Marketing Services of Wisconsin for sharing his data. For more information, you can contact Dominic directly at 920/993-8435. You can also check out our full housing start report on the real estate trends page at DaneCountyMarket.com .

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com

Dane County months of inventory DECREASE

Dane County home and condo inventory stood at 10.3 months on November 30th, down from 10.8 months on November 30th of 2008. That's the first time inventory has decreased on a year-over-year basis since we started tracking this statistic in 2007.

Inventory for homes only stood at 7.8 months on November 30th, down from 8.2 months a year ago. Condo only inventory stood at 18.7 months, compared to 18.9 months a year ago.

This is an encouraging trend, but keep in mind much of the inventory depletion has been in the lowest price categories due to the implementation of the first-time home buyer tax credit. As you'll see below, inventory varies significantly by price range.

Here's how inventory varies by price range for homes only.

And here's how condo only inventory varies by price range.

Generally speaking, today's sellers have the most leverage in the home category for properties priced at $275,000 and under. Buyers have the clear advantage in the higher priced home categories, and in all price categories of the condo market.

For information on how home and condo inventory varies by location, you can check out the buying real estate page at DaneCountyMarket.com.

Have a good weekend,

Dan Miller, Realtor, Certified Distressed Property Expert, Keller Williams Realty and DaneCountyMarket.com